Recent Developments and Fundamental Anchors
Yearn.Finance has been making headlines for all the wrong reasons lately. On November 30, 2025, the protocol suffered a significant exploit targeting its legacy yETH stableswap pool. Attackers exploited a critical flaw in the old contract code, allowing them to mint virtually unlimited yETH tokens. The damage? Around $9 million drained from the pool and connected Curve yETH–WETH liquidity.
Recovery efforts have managed to claw back only about $2.4 million so far, thanks to work with external security teams. The silver lining here is that the exploit was confined to older infrastructure—Yearn’s core V2 and V3 vaults, which hold most of the protocol’s Total Value Locked, remained completely safe.
Still, the hack has left its mark. Investor confidence has taken a hit, reflected in recent price weakness. There is some hope on the horizon though—a governance proposal that would redirect roughly 90% of protocol revenue directly to YFI stakers is currently under community consideration. If approved, this could be a game-changer for token value.
These security incidents are reshaping how people view Yearn. Investors are increasingly drawn to cleaner, more auditable yield products, while legacy risks are getting repriced. The protocol needs to tread carefully here to rebuild trust.
On-Chain and Technical Indicators: Signal Assessment
Right now, YFI/USDT is trading around $3,421.08, showing a modest gain of about 0.58% over the past 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the technical picture is mixed at best. The Relative Strength Index sits at roughly 46—neither oversold nor overbought, but leaning slightly bearish.
The MACD tells a similar story. We’re seeing a negative MACD line around -$44 versus a signal line at -$49, creating a small positive histogram. Translation? The bearish pressure might be easing up, but we haven’t seen a clear bullish crossover yet.
What’s particularly noteworthy is that both the Simple and Exponential Moving Averages on the 4-hour timeframe are sitting above current price—SMA around $3,458 and EMA near $3,461. These are acting as overhead resistance, making it harder for the price to push higher.
Zooming out to the daily chart, we can identify key pivot levels. Strong resistance is clustered between $3,640 and $4,050, while support appears to be holding in the $3,200-$3,500 range. Most forecasting models suggest the price could drift lower over the coming weeks unless buyers step up to defend those critical support levels around $3,300-$3,600.
The broader sentiment remains bearish. Pretty much all the major moving averages—the 10-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day—are above where we’re trading now, which typically signals downward pressure in the market.
Scenario Outlooks
Bullish Scenario: If YFI can break through immediate resistance around $3,600–$3,650 and the governance reforms get approved—particularly the revenue-sharing proposal—we could see a test of the $4,000-$4,200 zone. A sustained push above that level might open the door to $5,000 and beyond, assuming the broader DeFi market cooperates.
Bearish Scenario: If we fail to hold current levels, the next logical stop is the stronger support zone near $3,200–$3,300. A break below $3,200 could trigger a deeper slide toward $2,800-$3,000 over the longer term, especially if macro conditions worsen or DeFi sentiment turns more negative.
Short-Term Price Prediction (Next 4-6 Weeks)
Given what we’re seeing—neutral RSI, MACD showing early signs of improvement but with resistance overhead—the most likely path forward is sideways to slightly bearish. YFI will probably trade in a range between roughly $3,300 and $3,600, with plenty of back-and-forth movement.
If selling pressure intensifies, we could test the lower end of that range around $3,250–$3,300. On the flip side, if buyers get energized—maybe by positive news on governance or additional fund recovery—the first real target on the upside would be $3,600–$3,700.
Looking out over the next three months, assuming no major macro disruptions, YFI might gradually work its way toward the $3,500-$4,050 range. That said, the risk-reward isn’t particularly compelling unless we see meaningful improvements in protocol fundamentals—things like successful governance reforms, growing TVL, and better security around legacy contracts—combined with a supportive macro environment for DeFi.
Key Risks & Monitoring Points
• Legacy Contract Exposure: The yETH exploit exposed serious vulnerabilities in older contracts. Any repeat incidents will likely hammer investor confidence and price even harder.
• Governance Implementation: The revenue redistribution proposal sounds great on paper, but there’s always execution risk. Delays or pushback from the community could dampen enthusiasm pretty quickly.
• TVL Trends and Competitive Pressure: Yearn’s Total Value Locked has taken a hit following the exploit. If the protocol can’t stabilize or grow TVL while competing yield optimizers are nipping at its heels, it’ll be tough to maintain value.
• Macro Regime: Rising interest rates, regulatory crackdowns, or general risk-off sentiment in crypto will weigh on altcoins across the board—YFI included.
Final Insight
YFI is at a crossroads right now. On one hand, it benefits from scarcity and a strong brand in DeFi. On the other, the recent exploit has left some nasty scars on its reputation. The technicals are leaning slightly bearish with overhead resistance, but those governance reforms could provide the catalyst needed for a turnaround—if they’re executed well.
The support zone between $3,300-$3,600 is absolutely critical to watch. A clean break above $3,650 might signal the start of a recovery; failure to hold could mean more downside ahead. For now, cautious accumulation—while steering clear of any legacy pool exposure—and waiting for clearer fundamental signals seems like the smartest play. Patience will be key here.
