Recent Developments & Market Context
Threshold Network (T) has been rolling out a series of protocol improvements throughout late 2025, all focused on attracting institutional players—especially when it comes to tBTC, the bridge asset that connects DeFi protocols with actual Bitcoin holdings. Back in November, Threshold introduced gasless tBTC minting and direct redemptions through their updated app, making the whole process smoother and less costly for users. At the same time, they upgraded their website and analytics tools to boost transparency and support their multi-chain vision. The goal here is pretty clear: make Threshold’s infrastructure more appealing and compliant for big Bitcoin holders looking to tap into DeFi.
That said, these positive developments are happening against a pretty rough market backdrop. The broader crypto space has been dealing with risk aversion, regulatory uncertainty, and thinning liquidity. As a result, many altcoins—including T—have been caught in the downdraft despite showing technically oversold conditions. The current price weakness reflects both these macro headwinds and the growing pains of Threshold’s ongoing transformation.
Key Technical Indicators: What the Charts Reveal
Looking at the latest 4-hour chart for T/USDT, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting around 39.9—below the neutral 50 level and trending toward oversold territory, though it hasn’t hit extreme lows just yet. Both the 4-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) are hovering near $0.009015 and $0.009097 respectively—both above the current market price of roughly $0.008736. This suggests that any rally will likely meet resistance around that zone. Meanwhile, the MACD line has dipped below its signal line with a slightly negative histogram, confirming that bearish momentum is still in play.
From a daily pivot perspective, the nearest resistance levels are clustered around $0.0090267 (R1) and $0.0091933 (R2), while support sits at approximately $0.0087067 (S1) and $0.0085533 (S2). Right now, the price is barely holding above these support lines, with a deeper floor at $0.0083867 (S3) waiting below if selling pressure picks up steam.
Short-Term Patterns
Over the past several days, T has dropped somewhere between 10 and 15 percent without showing much sign of a bounce. The immediate resistance zone between $0.0090 and $0.0092 is critical—if the price manages to break above this area, it could test the 7-day moving averages and potentially spark some short-term relief. On the flip side, the risk of further downside grows if the price can’t hold the S1/S2 zone around $0.00870 to $0.00855. A break below that support could see T drift down toward $0.00830 to $0.00840 before finding solid footing at S3.
Outlook & Price Prediction Scenarios
Putting the technical picture together with what’s happening fundamentally, here are a few scenarios for T/USDT over the next one to three months:
Bullish Case
If Threshold manages to attract meaningful institutional interest through tBTC adoption, enhanced security measures via Immunefi, and smoother user experiences like gasless minting and direct redemptions, we could see renewed buying interest. A clean break above the immediate resistance zone of $0.00900 to $0.00920 might push the price toward $0.0100. From there, if broader market sentiment stabilizes or turns positive and volatility calms down, further upside toward $0.0110 becomes realistic.
Base/Neutral Case
If the market stays choppy or slightly bearish, T will probably trade in a range between $0.00850 and $0.00920. Expect consolidation around the $0.00870 to $0.00855 area as traders digest the protocol updates while weighing macro risks. Any upside attempts might bump into resistance around $0.00900 but struggle to sustain gains above that level.
Bearish Case
If macro conditions deteriorate—think stricter regulations, heavy capital outflows, or a broader crypto market selloff—Threshold could break below the current support at $0.00870 and slide toward $0.00830 to $0.00840. Should selling volume accelerate, the price might test deeper support around $0.00820 or even lower, risking a full capitulation unless buyers step in aggressively at those levels.
