Recent Developments & Fundamental Pressures
Qubic’s token has taken a small hit over the last day, dropping around 1.18% to land at roughly $0.0000004969 per token against USDT.
There have been some interesting developments on the fundamental side lately. Back in mid-January 2026, execution fees finally went live on the mainnet, which means smart contracts now burn QUBIC tokens when they’re executed. This creates a deflationary mechanism that’s actually one of the stronger long-term positives for QUBIC’s tokenomics. The team’s also been busy—they showed off their “Useful Proof of Work” concept at CryptoXR France and have been rolling out regular updates to their core node and wallet apps, so at least development seems to be chugging along. That said, the technical picture isn’t pretty right now. Only about 20% of key indicators are showing bullish signals, while nearly 80% are either bearish or sitting on the fence.
Technical Indicators: What the Charts Tell Us
Looking at momentum, the RSI is hovering around 42–45, which puts QUBIC in neutral territory—not overbought, not oversold. Interestingly though, the RSI has been making higher lows while the price keeps making lower lows. That’s called a bullish divergence, and it often hints at a potential bounce coming up. The MACD is showing some weak bullish crossover signals, but nothing strong enough to get excited about yet. Both the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages are trending down, and they’re sitting above current price levels, which means they’ll likely act as resistance if the price tries to move up.
Support and resistance levels are pretty clear right now. Pivot analysis puts solid support in the $0.0000004600–$0.0000005000 range, which should act as a short-term floor. Resistance is sitting between $0.0000005500 and $0.0000006200, matching up with those moving averages and previous price peaks. If QUBIC can break through that resistance zone with good volume, we might see it push toward $0.0000007000. On the flip side, if support breaks, things could get ugly fast, potentially dropping toward $0.0000004000 or lower.
Trend & Volatility Patterns
Volatility has been pretty quiet this week. The Bollinger bands on shorter timeframes are squeezing together, which usually means a breakout is brewing—the question is which direction. Given how things look technically, a move down seems more probable unless something changes the narrative. The daily and weekly moving averages aren’t looking friendly either. The 50-day is below the 200-day, and both are pointing down. Traders call this a “death cross,” and it typically means downward pressure is likely to continue until buyers actually show up in force.
Scenario-Based Price Predictions & Risk Cases
Let’s walk through a couple of realistic scenarios for the next one to three months based on what we’re seeing.
Bearish Base Case: If that resistance around $0.0000006200 holds and sellers keep control, QUBIC could drift down to support near $0.0000004000. We’re looking at a potential 15% to 25% decline in this scenario. The main red flags would be weak volume on any bounce attempts, general crypto market weakness, or if those execution fees and development milestones don’t translate into actual usage and demand.
Bullish Upside Case: Now, if QUBIC manages to break cleanly above $0.0000006200 with strong volume backing it up, we could see a move toward $0.0000007000 fairly quickly. Push beyond that, and $0.0000008000 or higher becomes realistic—especially if adoption picks up, more smart contracts get deployed, or there’s some external catalyst like new exchange listings or partnerships. The deflationary burn from those execution fees would really help amplify any upward move if demand becomes consistent.
Long-Term (12-24 months out): Looking way ahead toward mid-2027 and into 2028, QUBIC’s fate really hinges on whether the utility actually delivers—particularly the Useful PoW concept and AI integration. If adoption scales up meaningfully, technical indicators suggest the price could gradually climb. But getting to even modest milestones like $0.0000010000 is going to require sustained network growth, much deeper liquidity, and way more demand than we’re seeing today.
Governance, Ethics & Tail Risks
QUBIC hasn’t been without controversy. There have been claims that the project executed or attempted to control over 50% of Monero’s hash rate, though the Monero community largely disputes this. Either way, these kinds of controversies carry real reputational risk and could draw regulatory attention. Investor confidence can evaporate quickly if ethical or security concerns start dominating the conversation. To their credit, the team addressed governance in a recent AMA, outlining plans for independent audits, separating decision-making responsibilities, and segregating funds. That’s all positive, but until it’s fully implemented and verified by the community, these tail risks aren’t going anywhere.
