Recent Developments and Market Context
Ontology just wrapped up a major tokenomics revamp through its “ONG Tokenomics Adjustment Proposal,” which got the green light in early November 2025. The team cut ONG’s total supply cap from one billion down to 800 million and locked away additional liquidity for good—basically making the token scarcer and hopefully more stable long-term. They also tweaked staking rewards to give ONT holders a better deal. All of this went live with the MainNet v3.0.0 upgrade on December 1, 2025, which brought in some consensus improvements and new architecture designed to keep the ecosystem running smoothly.
These behind-the-scenes upgrades, along with Ontology’s continued focus on decentralized identity and Web3 infrastructure, should spark some fresh interest in ONT. The inflation worries are easing up, and supply is getting tighter—that’s usually a good sign.
That said, the market’s still being pretty careful right now. Broader economic pressures and a recent crypto downturn are keeping everyone on their toes.
Technical Indicators Analysis
Right now, ONT is sitting at about 0.05396 USDT, down roughly 3.63% over the last 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, things are leaning bearish to neutral-bearish. The 4-hour RSI has dropped to around 34.7, meaning it’s getting close to oversold levels—but we haven’t seen that bounce yet. The MACD is slightly negative too, with the MACD line just under the signal line and the histogram barely negative. That tells us there’s some weak bearish momentum, but nothing super aggressive. Price is also trading below both the 4-hour Simple Moving Average (around 0.05829) and the Exponential Moving Average (around 0.05794), so there’s definitely some downward pressure and resistance above.
On the daily chart, pivot analysis shows first resistance around 0.05547 USDT (R1), then stronger walls at 0.05643 (R2) and 0.05837 (R3). For support, we’re looking at 0.05257 (S1) first, then down to 0.05063 (S2) and 0.04967 (S3). The daily Rate-of-Change is showing around -0.244, which means momentum’s dropped hard recently—almost 24.4% over the measured stretch. That backs up the bearish vibe we’re seeing.
Short to Medium-Term Scenarios
Based on where things stand technically and the recent network upgrades, there are basically two ways this could go in the short to medium term.
If the bearish trend continues, ONT might struggle to break above that 4-hour resistance zone around 0.0579 to 0.0583. If it can’t push through, we’re probably headed down toward the first support around 0.0525 USDT. If that level breaks, next stops are 0.0506 (S2) and 0.0497 (S3). We might see some exhaustion and a potential bounce near or just past S2, depending on how oversold it gets.
On the flip side, if we get a bullish reversal, a solid break above 0.0555 (R1) with decent volume could push us up to test 0.0564 (R2) and maybe even 0.05837 (R3). Those upper levels line up with daily pivot resistance though, so they’ll probably put up a good fight. For any real bullish momentum, we’d likely need either a broader market rally or some exciting news about partnerships, adoption, or ecosystem growth.
Price Prediction and Risk Factors
Looking at the technicals, the recent supply adjustments, and ONT’s spot in the Web3 identity space, a reasonable forecast for the next 2 to 4 weeks puts ONT/USDT trading somewhere between 0.0497 and 0.0585 USDT. The sweet spot for consolidation is probably around 0.0515 to 0.0545, assuming we don’t get any major news or market-wide swings. If something positive happens—like a spike in on-chain activity, fresh partnerships, or favorable regulatory news—there’s potential upside toward 0.060 USDT. Breaking through that level would need some serious volume though. On the downside, if macro conditions worsen or crypto sentiment weakens across the board, we could see ONT drop toward 0.045 to 0.048 USDT if those support levels don’t hold.
Important Considerations for Traders & Investors
There are a few key risks to keep an eye on: overall crypto market volatility, regulatory developments (good or bad), and whether the OnChain v3.0.0 infrastructure actually performs well after the upgrade. Another big factor is whether the new staking rewards stay attractive and predictable—that directly affects what holders expect. Liquidity around ONG-ONT pairs matters too. Those locked LP tokens help reduce circulating supply, but they might squeeze short-term liquidity.
For traders, tight risk management is crucial here. Setting stops below S2 or S3 makes sense if you’re worried about a downside break. Wait for confirmation above resistance zones before going long. For long-term investors, the new tokenomics and identity focus could be strategic wins—but only if ONT actually gets real-world usage beyond just speculation.
