Recent Developments and Market Sentiment
The Neo protocol is dealing with a rough patch right now, caught between messy internal drama and the usual pressures of a volatile crypto market. Early this January, co-founders Da Hongfei and Erik Zhang had a very public falling out over who controls the Neo Foundation’s treasury and how transparent the organization really is. Zhang pushed hard for actual, verifiable financial disclosure, while Da pushed back against those accusations. The Foundation tried to calm things down, saying the squabble won’t mess with day-to-day operations and promising to publish a proper financial report sometime in Q1 2026. But let’s be real—investors are clearly rattled by all this.
On a brighter note, there’s still stuff happening in the ecosystem. A new DEX is planned for Q2 2026, there are ongoing efforts to bring down swap fees on the Neo network, and developers are still tinkering with smart contract tools. So it’s not all doom and gloom. That said, the overall vibe is pretty mixed, especially among traders who are watching the price drop and getting nervous rather than excited about any technical breakthroughs.
Technical Indicators and Price Data
Looking at the latest numbers, NEO/USDT is sitting around $3.10, down roughly 4.0% in the past 24 hours. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 34—not quite oversold, but definitely leaning that direction. The MACD isn’t looking great either, with the MACD line dipping below its signal line and showing a negative histogram, which basically screams bearish momentum. To make matters worse, both the simple moving average (around $3.35) and exponential moving average (roughly $3.30) are sitting above the current price, acting like a ceiling NEO just can’t seem to break through.
If you look at daily pivot points, the immediate resistance is sitting near $3.17, with higher levels around $3.32. On the flip side, support is hanging out around $3.02, with deeper safety nets down at $2.87 if things get really ugly. The daily rate-of-change is negative too, confirming that sellers have the upper hand right now.
Short-Term Tactical Considerations
Here’s the deal: if NEO can’t punch back above that $3.30-$3.35 zone where the moving averages are, it’s probably heading down to test support around $3.02, maybe even $2.90. If it does bounce from those levels, expect it to run into resistance again at $3.17, then $3.30. A clean break above $3.35 would actually be encouraging and suggest that buyers are starting to take control again.
Mid- and Long-Term Forecasts
Most analysts who’ve published 2026 forecasts are betting on a broader altcoin recovery and generally expect NEO to average somewhere between $5.50 and $7.50, assuming the market cooperates and the platform keeps building out its infrastructure. Some optimistic predictions even see highs above $7.50 if everything goes right. More cautious models put the average closer to $5.70, with the usual disclaimer that governance mess-ups and market cycles could swing things either way.
Here’s the catch though: if Neo doesn’t sort out its internal soap opera, it’s going to fall behind competing chains when it comes to attracting developers, users, and institutional money. Add to that the regulatory uncertainty—especially given Neo’s complicated history with Chinese crypto policy—and you’ve got a recipe for limited upside unless someone provides some clarity. That said, if the team can actually deliver on things like better tokenization tools, ecosystem integrations, and improved swap mechanics, sentiment could definitely improve over time.
Price Prediction Scenarios
Bearish scenario: If the negative momentum keeps rolling, NEO could easily drop toward $3.00, break through support, and potentially land somewhere between $2.80 and $2.90. Failing to reclaim $3.35 would pretty much confirm we’re looking at a deeper correction.
Baseline (neutral) scenario: Assuming things stabilize and NEO moves somewhat in sync with other altcoins, we’re probably looking at sideways trading between $3.30 and $3.60 over the next few weeks. It’ll likely keep testing resistance at the moving averages while holding support around $3.00.
Bullish scenario: If the governance drama gets resolved—maybe through those promised financial disclosures or some kind of institutional vote of confidence—and the ecosystem actually delivers on its roadmap, NEO could realistically climb back into the $5-$7 range during 2026. Under ideal conditions, we might even see runs toward $7.50 or higher.
