Recent Developments and Market Context
Livepeer (LPT) has caught the eye of many traders recently as it works to merge decentralized video infrastructure with AI-powered workflows. The token experienced a dramatic moment back in late May 2025, when it shot up roughly 150% after landing a listing on a major Korean exchange. The rally was further fueled by Grayscale adding Livepeer to its Artificial Intelligence Crypto Sector portfolio, along with some strategic community moves from the Livepeer Foundation. That spike was impressive, though it happened during a much more optimistic phase in the crypto market overall.
Fast forward to today, and LPT is trading around $3.16—a steep decline from those earlier peaks. The pullback reflects a combination of factors: weaker sentiment across altcoins, growing regulatory pressure on AI-focused crypto projects, and a general cooling off in market enthusiasm. From a technical standpoint, multiple derivative sources are flashing warning signs. The token is now trading below its key moving averages—the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. Oscillators are showing neutral-to-bearish signals, and volatility has been picking up. The consensus view? Several technical summaries point toward “Strong Sell” territory.
Key Technical Indicators and Interpretation
Looking at the most recent numbers for LPT/USDT, there are a few standout signals painting a cautious picture:
• The 4-hour Relative Strength Index sits at roughly 47.5—hovering just under neutral. It’s not screaming oversold, but it’s also not showing much bullish strength.
• The MACD on shorter time frames reveals that the MACD line is slightly below its signal line, with a negative histogram. This suggests mild downward momentum, though nothing overly aggressive.
• On the 4-hour chart, the simple moving average comes in around $3.207, while the exponential moving average is a touch lower at $3.198. Current prices are sitting below both of these levels, which typically suggests that buyers aren’t yet strong enough to push things back above those thresholds.
• Daily pivot points lay out a clear map of battlegrounds ahead. Resistance levels sit at $3.2447 (R1), $3.3263 (R2), and $3.3797 (R3). On the flip side, support zones stretch down from $3.1097 (S1) to $2.9747 (S3). These are critical levels where price could either bounce or break down.
Medium- to Long-Term Moving Averages
When you zoom out to daily and weekly charts, LPT is clearly trading beneath its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs. This tells us that the uptrend from earlier in the year has likely reversed—at least in terms of daily momentum. Buyers have tried and failed multiple times to reclaim resistance zones around $3.50 to $3.80, which only adds to the difficulty they’re facing right now.
Price Prediction Scenarios
Based on what the technicals are showing and how price has been behaving lately, two main scenarios seem most likely over the next couple of weeks to a month:
Bearish Scenario (Higher Probability)
If support around the $3.00 to $3.10 zone gives way, the next logical target for sellers would be somewhere in the $2.80 to $2.90 range. Should price break below $2.80, we could see further downside toward $2.50—especially if the broader market stays weak. Downward pressure is likely to stick around unless we see a meaningful influx of buyers or some kind of positive shift in the broader crypto environment, such as clearer AI regulation or more crypto-friendly policy news.
Bullish Reversal Scenario
For bulls to take back control, LPT needs to reclaim key resistance around $3.30 to $3.50—and it needs to do so with solid volume behind it. A move back above daily moving averages, combined with the MACD crossing above its signal line, would go a long way in building confidence. If that happens, the pivot resistance levels at $3.2447 (R1) and $3.3263 (R2) become the next tests. A sustained push above $3.70 to $3.80 could open the door to higher targets—but realistically, that kind of move would probably need some sort of catalyst, whether it’s positive news, renewed ecosystem confidence, or favorable macro conditions.
What to Watch (Indicators & Catalysts)
Beyond just watching price, there are several things worth keeping an eye on:
• Volume on any upward moves—without strong volume, breakouts above resistance tend to fizzle out quickly.
• Extremes in RSI or Williams %R on shorter time frames—these can hint at short-term pullbacks or relief rallies.
• MACD crossovers and histogram shifts for early signs that momentum might be changing direction.
• Sentiment across AI-related tokens and any regulatory developments—since Livepeer is positioned in both video and AI, news around data privacy, AI governance, or new partnerships could move the needle.
• On-chain metrics like staking participation and wallet concentration among large holders, which can impact liquidity and volatility.
Short-Term Outlook
To wrap things up, Livepeer sits at a bit of a technical crossroads right now. With price below moving averages and momentum indicators leaning slightly negative, the easier path appears to be downward. That said, support around $3.00 could hold as a near-term floor, offering a potential bounce if buyers show up with conviction. Resistance near $3.30 to $3.50 will be tough to crack for bulls.
For active traders, managing risk tightly around the $3.00 level is crucial. For longer-term holders, this might just be a consolidation phase before a clearer trend takes shape—assuming the right catalysts eventually emerge.
