Recent Developments & Market Context
At the beginning of 2026, Flux has been catching people’s attention thanks to some pretty significant updates. The network is moving toward something called “Proof-of-Useful-Work v2″—basically a new way of rewarding users for actual computing tasks instead of just mining. They rolled out a mandatory node upgrade back in August 2025 that set the stage for this transition. On top of that, Flux Cloud has been working on making things easier for everyone—adding multiple languages, better mobile access, and making sure everything plays nice with GDPR rules. All of this points toward broader adoption from institutions and regular users alike. There were also some rumors floating around about compute cartels operating within the network, but those have been shut down, which has helped restore confidence.
When it comes to the markets, things have been a bit of a mixed bag. There are somewhere between 410 and 420 million tokens floating around, and the inflation rate sits pretty high at around 18-20% per year, which keeps adding pressure on the supply side. The market cap is fairly small—less than $50 million—which puts Flux in that category of lower-liquidity, higher-volatility altcoins. Sentiment indicators show traders are still being cautious, with many sitting on the sidelines waiting for clearer signs before jumping in.
Indicator-Based Technical Analysis
Looking at the latest numbers for FLUX/USDT, the 4-hour RSI is sitting just below 66, which shows we’ve got some decent bullish momentum without being in overbought territory yet. The MACD line recently crossed above its signal line, creating a small positive histogram—another sign that short-term momentum is tilting upward. What’s interesting is that Flux just broke through both its 4-hour Simple Moving Average and Exponential Moving Average, which had been acting as resistance. With the current price around $0.1154, it’s now trading above those averages, which definitely adds some weight to the bullish case.
Pivot Points & Support-Resistance Levels
When we look at the daily pivot levels, resistance shows up at about $0.1166, $0.1181, and $0.1198. On the flip side, support levels are sitting at roughly $0.1134, $0.1117, and $0.1102, with the central pivot around $0.1149. These levels create a pretty tight range where price action is likely to happen in the short term. The fact that we’re trading close to that first resistance level suggests the upside might be capped unless something big happens. But if we can’t stay above that first support level, we could easily slide down to test the lower ones.
Price Prediction Scenarios
Based on everything we’re seeing right now, there are three ways this could play out:
Bullish Scenario: If Flux can stay above those moving averages around $0.1089-$0.1095 and the RSI stays above 60, we could see it push through that first resistance at $0.1166. Over the next several days, we might even reach $0.1181 or $0.1198. If trading volume really picks up—think daily volumes pushing past the usual $3-5 million—we could see extensions toward $0.1250 or possibly $0.1300 if momentum really takes off.
Neutral-sideways Scenario: If that first resistance holds firm, we’re probably looking at some choppy trading between $0.1166 and $0.1134, with possible dips down to $0.1117 if market sentiment turns negative. In this scenario, Flux would likely trade sideways between $0.1100 and $0.1200 until something—whether it’s protocol news or a broader crypto market move—breaks us out of this range.
Bearish Scenario: A drop below $0.1134 could open the door to $0.1117 and $0.1102 pretty quickly. If those levels don’t hold, we could be looking at a retest of the $0.1000-$0.1050 area, especially if the broader altcoin market weakens or if concerns about inflation and supply pressure start dominating the conversation. In that case, it could take quite a while—maybe weeks or months—to climb back to current levels without some fresh positive news.
Final Insight: Key Triggers to Watch
Right now, the technical picture looks slightly bullish, but Flux is really at a crossroads where what happens next will depend heavily on execution and broader market conditions. Things that could push FLUX significantly higher include: actual usage data showing PoUW v2 is working, new partnerships with enterprises or infrastructure projects (especially anything related to decentralized cloud computing), regulatory clarity, and strong enough trading volume to support a breakout above $0.1200. On the other hand, things could turn south if we see worsening economic conditions, a broader altcoin selloff, or if concerns about token inflation become more widespread.
