Recent Developments & Market Context
As of December 2025, Centrifuge (CFG) just wrapped up a pretty significant token migration. They’ve moved away from their old fragmented setup—which included WCFG and the original Centrifuge Chain token—to a single, unified ERC-20 CFG token living on Ethereum. This change came through governance proposal CP149. The migration deadline got pushed back a bit from November 30 to December 3, just to make sure everyone had time to participate. The good news? About 90% of the old tokens have already been migrated. This consolidation cleans things up nicely, bringing all the liquidity together in one place and marking a real turning point as CFG moves toward full EVM-compatibility.
At the same time, Centrifuge V3 is rolling out with some exciting features—modular fund templates, customizable tokenization products, and connections across multiple DeFi chains. Earlier in 2025, the Total Value Locked in the ecosystem jumped past $440 million, a huge leap from where it was before. Combine that with the token’s built-in inflation rate of around 3% annually and some recent liquidity incentive programs, and you’ve got the ingredients shaping current market sentiment.
Technical Indicator Analysis & Price Levels
Right now, CFG/USDT is trading at roughly $0.11550, down about 1.44% over the last 24 hours—showing some mild downward pressure. Looking at the technicals, pretty much all the moving averages, from the quick ones like MA5 and MA10 all the way to the long-term MA200, are flashing “Sell” signals. In fact, out of 12 moving averages being tracked, exactly zero are showing Buy signals. That’s a pretty clear indication of consistent bearish momentum right now.
The momentum indicators aren’t looking much better—they’re showing oversold to weak conditions:
• The 14-day RSI is sitting around 40.5, which is in Sell territory and suggests the price could keep drifting lower before finding a floor.
• Both the Stochastic and Williams %R indicators are deep in oversold territory.
• The MACD is hovering in neutral-to-slightly-negative space, while the ADX shows the trend is actually getting stronger—unfortunately, that trend is pointing down.
As for price levels, support is starting to form just above where we are now: around $0.1180 to $0.1200, with a secondary support zone sitting between $0.1100 and $0.1125. On the flip side, resistance is clustered between $0.1250 and $0.1300, with stronger barriers appearing near $0.1350 to $0.1370 based on pivot points and Fibonacci levels.
Short-Term & Medium-Term Price Scenarios
Short-term (next few days to one week): With the indicators showing oversold conditions, we might see a weak bounce toward that $0.125 resistance level. That said, the overall bias still leans bearish. If the price decisively breaks below the $0.110 support, especially with heavy trading volume and negative sentiment across the broader crypto market, we could easily see a slide toward $0.100.
Trajectory if Support Holds
Now, if CFG manages to hold steady around the $0.118 to $0.110 range, short-term momentum could start to shift. In that scenario, we might see a retest of the MA5 and MA10 levels, which are currently sitting around $0.127 to $0.128—though these would likely act as resistance. For any move higher to stick, we’d really need to see trading volume pick up significantly.
Trajectory if Resistance Overcomes Price
If CFG can power through the $0.130 level with conviction, medium-term targets would come into view around $0.140 to $0.150. These levels line up with earlier long-term moving averages like the MA100 and MA200, plus some previous resistance clusters. Getting there would probably require some strong positive catalysts—things like broader platform adoption or major protocol achievements.
Risks & Catalysts To Watch
On the risk side, the migration might not be completely smooth. There could be lingering fragmentation or confusion that triggers some selling pressure. The token’s 3% inflation rate and the release of liquidity incentives could also weigh on the price if demand doesn’t keep up. And of course, broader volatility in crypto markets or any new regulatory pressures could make things worse.
For catalysts, keep an eye on the V3 rollout—if that goes well, it could be huge. New DeFi integrations, normalized trading activity across exchanges now that the migration’s done, rising TVL, and active governance participation would all be positive signs. Strong volume at these key price levels could flip the momentum. And if we start seeing bullish reversal patterns on the charts—like the RSI climbing out of oversold territory while the MACD shows a positive crossover—that would add real weight to any potential uptrend.
