Recent Developments & Market Context
Axie Infinity just rolled out a major tokenomics revamp, bringing in bonded AXS (bAXS)—a token you can’t transfer that’s designed to cut down on inflation and make life harder for bots. The idea is to restructure how rewards work for gameplay, staking, and breeding, which should hopefully boost long-term demand for AXS. There’s also a big strategic update coming on February 3, 2026 where the team will share their priorities for the year. Depending on how the community reacts to their plans, we could see some serious price swings.
That said, the market’s still pretty cautious right now. Derivatives traders seem to be playing it safe and hedging their positions. AXS did have an impressive run in January 2026—jumping over 60% thanks to the bAXS launch and renewed GameFi hype—but things have cooled off lately. What happens next will probably depend on how the broader gaming token sector performs and whether investors actually believe these new economic models can stick around.
Technical Indicators & Key Levels
Right now, AXS is sitting around $1.48, which puts it below both the 4-hour Simple Moving Average (about $1.64) and Exponential Moving Average (roughly $1.67). That’s not a great sign—it shows there’s some short-term bearish pressure building up.
The 4-hour RSI is hovering around 32, which means we’re getting close to oversold territory. That could mean a bounce is coming if the support levels hold. The MACD is showing some interesting signs too—the histogram is barely turning positive, suggesting buyers might be starting to show up, though they’re definitely not in full force yet.
Support is clustered around $1.39 to $1.31 on the daily charts. For resistance, we’re looking at $1.54 to $1.63 first, with tougher barriers around $1.76 to $2.00. If AXS can break cleanly above $1.70, we might see momentum shift upward. But if it drops below $1.30, things could get ugly fast, potentially sliding down toward $1.15.
Price Path Scenarios Based on Chart Signals
Bull Case: Consolidation & Upside Breakout
If AXS manages to stay above $1.40 and bounces off that support, the oversold RSI and improving MACD could spark a rally up to the $1.60-$1.80 range. To really confirm this move, the price needs to punch through both those 4-hour moving averages and the daily resistance at $1.63. If that happens—and especially if the February strategic event delivers good news about ecosystem updates or bAXS adoption—we could realistically see AXS test $2.20 to $2.40 by late Q1.
Bear Case: Breakdown & Extension of Losses
On the flip side, if we lose that $1.30 support—particularly on weak volume with negative momentum divergence—AXS could tumble toward $1.15 and potentially all the way down to $1.00. If the broader crypto market turns sour, it could get even worse. The oversold RSI might slow things down a bit, but any relief rallies would probably be short-lived unless we reclaim those support zones.
Weekly Outlook & Entry Strategies
For traders looking to get in, the sweet spot might be somewhere around $1.30-$1.40, especially if you see bullish divergence on the MACD or RSI hitting oversold extremes with a nice confirmation candle—think hammer or bullish engulfing patterns on the daily or 4-hour charts. I’d recommend setting stop losses just below $1.25 to protect yourself from downside risk. If you prefer breakout trading, wait for a strong move above $1.70 on solid volume before jumping in, with targets around $2.00-$2.40. Also worth keeping an eye on on-chain metrics related to bAXS adoption—those could give you early hints about which way things are headed.
Projection & Price Prediction Summary
Taking everything into account—current technical signals, market conditions, and upcoming catalysts—here’s where I think AXS could land:
- Short-term (next 2-4 weeks): Probably bouncing between $1.30 and $1.70, unless we get some unexpected good news.
- Medium-term (end of Q1 2026): Bullish scenario could push us to $2.20-$2.40; base case lands around $1.70-$2.00; bearish scenario drops us back to $1.15-$1.30.
- Long-term (mid-2026): If GameFi keeps gaining traction, bAXS proves useful, and new products launch successfully, we could see AXS climb toward $3.00 or higher. But if those pieces don’t fall into place, resistance and broader market risks could keep it stuck under $2.50.
