Market Momentum & Recent News
Alchemy Pay is steadily building out its regulatory framework across the United States. Just this past January 2026, they picked up a Money Transmitter License in Nebraska—their 14th state approval. That’s a solid sign they’re serious about playing by the rules, which matters a lot as they push forward with bigger plans like their Alchemy Chain mainnet and bridging fiat with stablecoins throughout the year. All of this feeds into ACH’s long-term story, though it’s worth remembering that broader economic jitters—think interest rates, inflation concerns, and investors pulling back on risk—plus growing competition from other stablecoin and fiat on-ramps, could still throw some curveballs.
Right now, ACH/USDT is sitting around $0.00788082, down roughly 3.91% in the last 24 hours. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index is hovering near 36.6, which hints at things being a bit oversold—not dramatically, but enough to notice. The MACD on the same timeframe shows the line just barely above the signal with a tiny positive histogram, suggesting bearish pressure might be losing steam and we could see a small bounce soon. The 4-hour simple moving average is at about $0.008138, and the exponential moving average is a touch higher around $0.008327, both acting as overhead resistance for now.
Key Technical Levels: Support, Resistance, and Indicators
If we look at today’s daily pivot levels, here’s what stands out: the pivot point lands around $0.00791333. Above that, resistance zones stack up at R1 near $0.0080567, R2 around $0.0082233, and R3 hitting $0.0083667. On the downside, support shows up at S1 around $0.0077467, S2 near $0.0076033, and S3 down at $0.0074367. Since price is trading below the pivot and underneath both the 4-hour SMA and EMA, any upward attempts will likely run into trouble around R1-R2 in the near term.
The MACD setup tells an interesting story—the line is barely above the signal, and the histogram is really small, meaning momentum is pretty weak right now and could flip either way. The RSI sitting around 36-40 leaves some room to drift lower, but we’re also close enough to oversold territory that a bigger drop could push us there. Volume is going to be the key thing to watch here. If it dries up, we’re probably headed for a deeper pullback. But if volume picks up around resistance, we might actually see a push back toward those SMA and EMA levels.
Scenario Forecasts
– Bull Case: If ACH manages to climb above the EMA around $0.00833 and breaks through resistance in the $0.00822–$0.00837 zone, we could realistically see a move toward $0.009 or even $0.010 over the next few days to weeks. If momentum really builds and positive news keeps flowing, a push toward $0.012 isn’t out of the question.
– Base Case (Rangebound): More likely, given what we’re seeing momentum-wise, is that ACH stays stuck between $0.00750 and $0.00830 for the next week or so. Without a meaningful uptick in volume or some fresh catalyst, price will probably just shuffle around the pivot and support areas—maybe dipping down to S1 or S2 before taking another shot at resistance.
– Bear Case: If support around $0.00760–$0.00740 (S2-S3 zone) doesn’t hold, things could get messy fast. We’d be looking at a slide toward $0.00680–$0.00650, especially if the broader crypto market turns south. Breaking below these supports would likely trigger more selling and could even drag us down near $0.0060.
Price Prediction Outlook for Q1–Mid-2026
Putting the technical picture together with what’s happening on the fundamental side, a cautiously optimistic view would put ACH somewhere around $0.0095–$0.0105 by mid-2026—assuming the team keeps delivering on licenses and product launches. That’s roughly a 20-35% gain from here. In a more neutral, wait-and-see scenario, ACH probably trades in a $0.0070 to $0.0090 range over the next few months while everyone waits for clearer signals from the broader economy. It would take a genuine bull market revival and renewed excitement around altcoins to seriously push ACH toward $0.012-$0.015.
