Current State and Fundamental Updates
Right now, THORChain (RUNE/USDT) is sitting around $0.68, up roughly +4.03% over the past 24 hours. There’s been some exciting movement in the ecosystem lately—the protocol just went live on Dune, which means we’re getting full transparency on things like cross-chain liquidity, how nodes are operating, vault behaviors, and what’s happening at the app layer through tools like Rujira. This kind of visibility should help boost investor confidence and give everyone better analytics to work with. On top of that, we’re seeing some serious ecosystem growth: native swaps are expanding, integrations with chains like XRP and TRON are happening, and there’s a new token called TCY that’s getting 10% of protocol revenue. With fee burn mechanisms in place, there are some real deflationary dynamics at play here. All of this paints a picture of solid growth potential, though we need to be cautious from a technical standpoint.
Technical Indicator Overview and Near-Term Price Levels
When you zoom into the shorter timeframes—like the 4-hour chart—RUNE looks pretty stretched. The RSI is hovering around 78.30, which is deep in overbought territory. The MACD has crossed bullishly, with the MACD line sitting above its signal line and showing a positive histogram, so there’s still some upward momentum left in the tank. But here’s where it gets interesting: the moving averages are telling a more complicated story. The 4-hour SMA is around $0.6113, and the 4-hour EMA is at roughly $0.6264, just below where we’re trading now. If we see a pullback, these could act as solid support zones.
Looking at daily pivot points, the main pivot level is sitting at about $0.6750. Above that, we’ve got resistance at R1=$0.6910, R2=$0.7020, and R3=$0.7180. On the downside, support levels come in at S1=$0.6640, S2=$0.6480, and S3=$0.6370. These levels matter a lot—breaking above resistance shows real strength, while dropping below support could trigger a more significant pullback.
Price Prediction Scenarios: What’s Likely vs. What’s Extreme
Based on where momentum is right now, where resistance sits, and overall market sentiment, here are the most probable price paths ahead:
Most Likely Path (Near Term / Next Few Weeks)
– With the RSI showing overbought conditions on the 4-hour chart, we’re probably looking at either some consolidation in the $0.68–$0.72 range or a pullback down to strong support around $0.62–$0.65.
– If price manages to break above R1 at $0.691, the next targets would be R2 at $0.702 and possibly R3 at $0.718, though those higher levels could face some serious resistance.
– A drop below the daily pivot at $0.675 could open the door to S1 at $0.664 and S2 at $0.648, with S3 at $0.637 representing deeper downside risk.
Bullish Mid-Term Projection (2026)
If THORChain keeps up its revenue growth, continues burning tokens, and expands to new chains without hitting major regulatory or technical roadblocks, various forecasts suggest we could see some decent gains:
• One estimate puts RUNE averaging somewhere around $0.78-$1.02 by the end of 2026.
• Another projection shows end-of-month averages closer to $0.93, with year-end potentially hitting $1.03 if conditions stay favorable.
Bear Case / Worst-Case Scenarios
Of course, things could go the other way. Internal issues or external factors—think broader market weakness, rough macroeconomic conditions, or problems with the protocol itself—might push RUNE down toward the $0.50–$0.55 range. If we can’t hold those S2/S3 pivot zones, we could see even deeper losses. Some algorithmic forecasts even suggest a potential decline toward $0.35 if downside pressure really takes hold.
Strategic Takeaways for Traders & Investors
If you’re actively trading, that overbought status is a red flag. Jumping into new long positions right now comes with higher risk unless we get a clean breakout above resistance. It might make more sense to wait for a retest of support—especially around $0.62–$0.65—where you’d get a better risk/reward setup. For those holding long-term, the fundamentals still look pretty solid: the burn mechanism, revenue models, and cross-chain expansion all provide nice tailwinds. That said, you’ll probably need some patience before seeing prices consistently above $1.00 unless the broader crypto market turns decisively bullish.
