Recent Developments & Ecosystem Context
Trust Wallet Token (TWT) has had quite the rollercoaster ride lately, caught between promising utility upgrades and some pretty serious security hiccups. Back in late December 2025, hackers exploited a vulnerability in the Trust Wallet Chrome extension—specifically version 2.68—draining roughly $7 million from unsuspecting users through malicious code injection. The team scrambled to release version 2.69 with the fix, and Binance stepped up to fully reimburse affected users through their SAFU fund. While that helped calm initial panic, it really highlighted how vulnerable browser-based wallets can be. Then things got messier when South Korea’s Coinone exchange put TWT on their 30-day delisting watchlist, pointing to compliance issues and thin trading volumes. Not exactly the news holders wanted to hear. On the brighter side, Trust Wallet’s roadmap looks genuinely interesting—they’re rolling out enhanced utility programs, gas-fee discounts through something called FlexGas, governance-driven premium membership tiers, and even some trading derivatives down the line. If they can pull it off, these features might just reignite genuine long-term interest.
Technical Indicator Snapshot (4-Hour & Daily Frames)
Right now, TWT is trading around $0.91845 against USDT, down about 1.17% in the past day. Looking at the shorter 4-hour charts, the picture is honestly pretty mixed:
– The RSI is hovering near 51.22—basically dead neutral. It’s not screaming “oversold bargain” or flashing “overbought warning,” just kind of… sitting there.
– The MACD is telling a slightly more bearish story: the MACD line is running about 0.00377 below the signal line, with negative histogram bars to match. Not a great sign for immediate upside momentum.
– Both the Simple Moving Average (around $0.9140) and Exponential Moving Average (roughly $0.9150) on the 4-hour timeframe are sitting just beneath the current price. That suggests TWT might be trying to hold above these short-term averages—a small positive if it can maintain this position.
On the daily timeframe, pivot point analysis gives us some clear zones to watch. Resistance levels stack up between $0.9217 and $0.9280, while support sits lower around $0.9091 to $0.9117. The main pivot point comes in near $0.9180.
Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Days to One Week)
Looking ahead to the next several days, TWT will probably trade sideways between $0.91 and $0.93. The bearish MACD divergence suggests any upward moves might hit a wall unless buyers really step up and push past those moving averages convincingly. If we see a solid close above $0.9280, that could open the door to $0.95 or even the psychologically important $1.00 level. But if resistance holds? We’re probably looking at a pullback toward $0.90, maybe even testing $0.88 if sentiment sours.
The neutral RSI actually leaves room for movement in either direction—it’s not boxed in. But here’s the thing: without some kind of catalyst, whether that’s positive news or clarity on the regulatory mess, any rally is likely to be underwhelming and short-lived. The exploit patch and premium tier rollout are positives, sure, but trust takes time to rebuild. People need to see proof that these issues won’t keep happening.
Mid- to Long-Term Scenarios & Price Projections
When we zoom out to the next two to six months, TWT’s path really depends on whether users actually embrace these new features and whether the team executes their roadmap without major fumbles.
– Base Case: If Trust Premium memberships gain real traction and features like FlexGas discounts, seamless cross-chain swaps, and early access to vetted projects launch smoothly, TWT could reasonably find a home between $1.20 and $1.50 by mid-2026. This assumes steady user growth and gradually improving market sentiment—nothing crazy, just solid fundamentals playing out.
– Bullish Case: Now, if institutional players start showing genuine interest—maybe through tokenized real-world assets, major exchange listings, or surprisingly favorable regulatory developments—TWT could realistically push toward $2.00 to $3.00 by year-end. Some optimistic forecasts even suggest $5+ is within reach under very favorable conditions: strong momentum, controlled token emissions, and high participation in staking and locking programs. That’s definitely the upper end of possibilities though.
– Bearish Case: On the flip side, if security incidents keep happening or compliance failures trigger more delistings—especially in important markets like South Korea—TWT could easily slip down to $0.70-$0.80. In that scenario, it would break below the current pivot around $0.9180 and test those lower support zones near $0.78-$0.85. Not fun, but definitely a real possibility given recent events.
Key Risks to Monitor
Two major threats could derail any upward momentum: first, more security vulnerabilities in wallet extensions or core infrastructure would absolutely devastate investor confidence—people are already on edge. Second, regulatory pressure is intensifying, particularly in places like South Korea where oversight is getting stricter. Exchange watchlists and token compliance requirements aren’t going away. Finally, if those premium features and staking incentives roll out slowly or just don’t catch on with users, demand growth will stagnate and price will likely follow.
Potential Catalysts
Keep your eyes peeled for announcements around Trust Alpha (their so-called Launchpool 2.0), expanded trading features like perpetuals or prediction markets, those gas fee discount programs, or—critically—any resolution to compliance concerns with exchanges like Coinone. Also worth tracking: metrics like active wallet addresses, staking and locking participation rates, and how much gas is actually being spent in TWT. These numbers will tell us whether the bullish scenarios have any real grounding or if they’re just wishful thinking.
Bottom line? TWT’s near-term outlook is cautiously neutral with a slight bullish lean if the right catalysts appear. Longer term, everything hinges on whether the team can simultaneously strengthen security and deliver genuinely useful features. Both need to happen—one without the other won’t cut it.
