Recent News & Fundamental Tailwinds
LayerZero (ZRO) is caught in an interesting tug-of-war right now. On one hand, you’ve got some really exciting ecosystem growth happening. On the other, there are some legitimate concerns around token supply that investors can’t ignore. Late December 2025 brought a bit of disappointment when a governance vote to turn on protocol fees fell flat—didn’t even reach quorum. That’s a bummer because those fees would’ve powered a buyback-and-burn mechanism to help combat inflation. Now that deflationary tool is stuck on the shelf for who knows how long. Then there’s the elephant in the room: a massive token unlock coming January 20, 2026. We’re talking about roughly 25.71 million ZRO hitting the market, which is around 6.36% of what’s currently circulating. Everyone’s wondering whether the market can absorb that without tanking the price. But it’s not all doom and gloom—LayerZero keeps stacking wins with integrations like BOB for Bitcoin DeFi, new TRON bridges, and expanding its cross-chain messaging footprint. Those are solid building blocks for long-term value.
So basically, you’ve got bullish fundamentals battling bearish supply dynamics. The next few weeks should tell us which force wins out, and price action will probably swing based on how traders digest these competing narratives.
Technical Snapshot
Right now, ZRO is trading around $1.2418, down about 1.78% in the last 24 hours. Nothing dramatic, but the momentum isn’t exactly inspiring confidence either. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the RSI sits at roughly 44.78—not oversold territory yet, but definitely leaning weak. The MACD is showing a tiny bullish crossover, with the MACD line creeping above the signal line. Problem is, the histogram bars are pretty thin, which tells you that any upward push doesn’t have much juice behind it. As for moving averages on the 4-hour timeframe, price is sitting below both the simple MA around $1.2529 and the exponential MA near $1.2584. That overhead resistance suggests the short-term trend is still tilted bearish. Daily pivot levels paint a similar picture—ZRO is hovering just under the daily pivot at $1.2467, with support levels at $1.2363 (S1) and $1.2193 (S3), and resistance targets at $1.2533 (R1) and $1.2703 (R3).
Price Levels & Scenarios
Support & Resistance
The immediate ceiling to watch is the $1.25-$1.27 zone. That’s where the daily pivot and first resistance level converge, creating a cluster that could reject any rally attempts. If bulls manage to punch through that area with conviction, the next stop would be around $1.30, where moving averages and volume from prior trading converge. On the downside, the first line of defense is around $1.23 (S1), with more meaningful support stacking up near $1.22 (S2/S3). Lose $1.22, and things could get ugly fast—probably opening up a path toward the $1.10-$1.15 psychological zone where bargain hunters might finally step in.
Trading Scenarios
In the near term, expect ZRO to chop around between roughly $1.22 and $1.27 unless we get a real catalyst to shake things up. A bullish breakout above $1.27-$1.30 could spark a run toward $1.35-$1.40, but that would need volume backing it up—maybe triggered by positive ecosystem news like explosive cross-chain adoption numbers or a successful fee activation vote down the road. Flip the script, and if support at $1.22 crumbles, we’re probably looking at a slide toward $1.15. That downside scenario becomes way more likely if selling pressure from the upcoming unlock overwhelms demand.
Estimate & Prediction
Looking ahead to early February 2026, there are a couple of plausible paths. If ZRO manages to hold support and starts building momentum—think RSI climbing back above 50, MACD histogram bars getting fatter, and no panic selling from token unlocks—a realistic price target sits between $1.35 and $1.45. That assumes technicals improve and sentiment stays stable. But if resistance around $1.30 proves too tough to crack, or if that unlock triggers heavy selling, we could easily see downside targets closer to $1.05-$1.15. There’s also the wild card of delayed fee activation continuing to weigh on investor confidence, which could keep the price range-bound or even tilt things bearish.
Key Technical Indicators Summary
– 4-hour RSI (~45): Neutral with a bearish lean
– 4-hour MACD: Slight bullish crossover, but weak momentum behind it
– Price below short-term SMAs and EMA: Overhead resistance is real
– Daily oscillators: Mixed signals overall—some moving averages flash “Buy,” but longer-term ones still act as resistance
Bottom line? ZRO looks stuck in range-trading mode with downside risk hanging over it, unless something positive tips the scales. That unlock pressure isn’t going away, but strong fundamentals could offset it if the timing works out. For traders, this means tight risk management is crucial—set stops below $1.22 to protect downside, and only chase bullish setups if you see a confirmed break above $1.30 on solid volume. The next few weeks are going to be make-or-break, with governance decisions, unlock absorption, and cross-chain usage metrics all playing major roles in where price heads next.
