Recent Developments and Market Sentiment
Axelar’s AXL token has been going through a rough patch lately, thanks to a few major shake-ups that have left investors feeling pretty uncertain. The biggest bombshell? Circle bought out Interop Labs—the team that originally built Axelar—back in mid-December 2025. Now, even though the Axelar network is still run by the community, the deal didn’t include the AXL token itself. That news didn’t sit well with the market, and we’ve seen some serious volatility ever since. Right now, sentiment is leaning pretty bearish in the short run.
On a brighter note, Common Prefix has stepped up to take over protocol development. They’ve got solid credentials—they’ve worked on XRP Ledger and Bitcoin infrastructure before. Their game plan focuses on getting institutional players on board, tightening up compliance, and making cross-chain features even better. That could pay off down the road, but there’s definitely some execution risk here, and not all token holders are thrilled about the direction things are heading.
Current Technical State: Indicators at a Glance
Right now, AXL/USDT is sitting at around 0.0754 USDT, up about +4.02% over the last 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, the signals are pretty mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hanging out in neutral territory at about 47.5, while the MACD is slightly negative but showing a tiny bit of bullish divergence on the histogram. The simple moving average (SMA) is around 0.0755 USDT and the exponential moving average (EMA) is at roughly 0.0766 USDT. Bottom line? We’re probably looking at some consolidation in the near term with just a hint of upward pressure.
When we break down the daily pivot points, resistance levels are stacking up at about 0.0784, 0.0815, and 0.0849 USDT (that’s R1, R2, and R3). Support zones are sitting around 0.0719, 0.0685, and 0.0654 USDT (S1, S2, and S3). These levels match up pretty well with recent trading action and should give us a good idea of where we might see reversals or breakouts. One thing that stands out though—the one-day rate of change is showing a rough -21%, which tells us there’s been some real downward momentum recently.
Price Scenarios: Where AXL Could Head Next
Bullish Rebound Case
If AXL can hold the line at around 0.0719 USDT (that daily S1 support), we could see it bounce back toward 0.0784 USDT (daily R1). If buyers really start showing up—maybe because Common Prefix delivers some good news or we see a general rotation into altcoins—AXL might push toward that 0.0815–0.0849 USDT zone (R2 and R3). Things to keep your eye on: we’d want to see the MACD histogram flip positive and stay there, RSI climbing above 50 on the four-hour chart, and some decent volume backing up any upward moves. A clean close above that 4-hour EMA at 0.0766 would definitely help make the bullish case stronger.
Bearish Downside Case
On the flip side, if that 0.0719 USDT support crumbles, we’re probably headed down to around 0.0685 USDT (daily S2), and if things get really ugly, we could see 0.0654 USDT (daily S3). In this scenario, expect the RSI to drop below 40, MACD staying in negative territory, and the price getting stuck below both the 4-hour and daily moving averages. The negative vibes could get even worse if people start thinking the Circle deal means the AXL token is becoming less useful.
Outlook & Key Drivers for Q1 2026
Over the next few months, Axelar’s path forward really comes down to three things: Can Common Prefix actually deliver on those institutional partnerships they’re talking about? Will the broader crypto market give altcoins some love? And will we see improvements in on-chain activity—stuff like total value locked, cross-chain transaction volume, and actual network usage—that gets people excited again? Right now, the technical picture is sitting somewhere between neutral and mildly bearish. The real opportunity might come if we see deeper oversold conditions and a solid support base starts forming.
If you’re trading this, tight risk management is absolutely crucial. If you’re going long, keep stop-losses near S1. If you’re feeling bullish and already in, consider taking some profits near R1. For long-term holders, the key is watching whether the team actually executes on their plans. Any significant upside from here really depends on seeing real adoption and meaningful partnerships materialize.
