Introduction: Developments Shaping Helium’s Current Standing
Helium Network has been going through some interesting changes lately, and not all of them are moving the needle in HNT’s favor. As we moved through late 2025, the DePIN space got pretty shaken up—especially when io.net announced they’d be slashing their circulating supply by half come 2026. That kind of news has a way of dampening enthusiasm across the whole sector, and HNT hasn’t been immune to the chill.
That said, there are some bright spots worth mentioning. Helium’s push into Brazil with 40,000 new hotspots shows real ambition, and the team’s commitment to burning net income from Helium Mobile into Data Credits is a genuinely positive move for the tokenomics. Still, these positives are getting overshadowed by broader market headwinds—Bitcoin’s growing dominance and general macroeconomic uncertainty are weighing heavy on smaller cap projects like Helium.
Looking at the charts, the picture isn’t exactly encouraging right now. HNT is sitting below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and momentum indicators aren’t giving us much reason for optimism. The RSI is hanging out in neutral-to-oversold territory, while the MACD histogram is firmly in the red. Unless we see a real catalyst come through, the bearish pressure looks set to continue for the time being.
Technical Indicators and Key Levels: Where HNT Is Trading Now
Right now, HNT is hovering around US$ 1.50, and it’s running into resistance pretty much everywhere it tries to push higher. The 50-day simple moving average sits at roughly US$ 1.52, with the 200-day SMA forming another ceiling around US$ 1.60–1.61. Even the shorter-term 5-day and 10-day averages are dancing right around current price levels, which means bulls aren’t getting much help from any timeframe.
The 14-period RSI is floating between 45 and 50 depending on which exchange you’re looking at—basically neutral territory with a slight oversold tilt. It tells us selling pressure is still present, but we haven’t hit panic-selling levels that might spark a bounce. Meanwhile, the MACD is showing clear bearish divergence, with both the signal line and histogram backing up the downward trend. Volatility remains high based on the ATR readings, which makes things tricky for anyone trying to time entries or set sensible stop losses.
Pivot point analysis paints a picture of HNT stuck in a pretty tight range unless something breaks decisively. Resistance clusters around US$ 1.51–1.52, with support holding near US$ 1.49–1.50. If we look at Fibonacci retracements from recent highs, the 50% level marks resistance around US$ 2.10–2.15—a long way from where we’re trading now.
Short-Term Outlook: Possible Bounce or Deeper Drop?
For the bulls to get anything going, they’ll need to reclaim US$ 1.51–1.52 first. A clean break above the 50-day SMA would be even better, potentially opening the door back to US$ 1.60–1.70. But that’s going to take more than hope—we’d need to see a MACD crossover flip positive, RSI trending upward, and volume actually showing up to support the move.
On the flip side, if sellers keep the upper hand and price slips below US$ 1.48–1.50, things could get uncomfortable quickly. Next major support sits around US$ 1.40, and below that we’re looking at US$ 1.30. If the broader market takes a turn for the worse or regulatory concerns pop up again, those downside scenarios become very real very fast.
Longer-Term Scenarios: Risks, Catalysts, and Potential Trajectories
Looking out over the next several months, HNT’s fate really comes down to a mix of what the team does internally and how the broader DePIN sector evolves. The biggest potential catalysts are all about adoption—more hotspot deployments, growing mobile subscriptions, and increasing demand for Data Credits. The decision to funnel Helium Mobile revenue into DC burns is exactly the kind of structural improvement that could matter down the road.
But the risks are just as real. Competition in the DePIN space is heating up, macro conditions in crypto remain shaky, and there’s a growing sense that investor appetite for infrastructure and mining tokens has cooled off. We’re even seeing anecdotal reports from community members shutting down their hotspots because the economics just don’t pencil out anymore. Without some serious positive developments or a sector-wide resurgence, HNT could easily stay stuck in the doldrums or drift lower.
Multi-Month Price Range Projections
If we assume no major breakthrough moments, a reasonable range for HNT over the next three to six months would be somewhere between US$ 1.30 and US$ 2.10. If things break bullish—maybe network metrics improve significantly or the crypto market catches a real bid—we could see a push toward US$ 2.20–2.40. But that would require breaking through some serious long-term resistance and probably a much friendlier overall market environment.
On the downside, if market conditions worsen or fundamentals deteriorate further, we could easily see HNT test US$ 1.20 or lower. That might sound pessimistic, but in the current environment with all these headwinds, it’s a scenario traders need to keep on their radar.
