Recent Developments and Market Sentiment
Solar (SXP) has had quite a rough ride over the past few weeks, caught up in exchange drama and network upgrade news. The big moment came on December 3rd, 2025, when Upbit finally reopened deposits and withdrawals after completing their security audit. That immediately opened the floodgates—trading volume shot up past $100 million in a day, and the price jumped accordingly. But here’s the thing: traders aren’t exactly celebrating yet. Most of that volume was packed into one exchange, and the broader crypto market is still heavily favoring Bitcoin and the big names, which keeps pulling SXP down. Meanwhile, everyone’s keeping an eye on Solar’s Core 5.0 testnet, which is supposedly over 90% done. It promises better stability for block producers and improved validator bridge architecture—sounds great on paper. But without an actual mainnet launch date, people are still guessing about where the price goes next.
Technical Indicator Alignment and Short-Term Outlook
Right now, SXP is trading around $0.06170, down roughly 3.70% in the last 24 hours. Looking at the 4-hour chart, things are leaning slightly bearish. The RSI sits at about 47.3—not oversold, not overbought, just kind of stuck in neutral. Price is sitting below both the short-term simple and exponential moving averages (around $0.0626 and $0.06288), which means there’s resistance right overhead. The MACD isn’t helping either—it’s showing a negative histogram with the MACD line below the signal line, which tells us bearish momentum is still in charge.
Support, Resistance, and Pivot Points
If we map out the daily pivots, support levels are sitting at roughly $0.06040 (S1), then $0.05890 (S2), and further down at $0.05720 (S3). On the flip side, resistance shows up around $0.06360 (R1), $0.06530 (R2), and $0.06680 (R3). Given how things look right now, SXP will probably test that first support level pretty soon. If it breaks through, we’re likely headed toward S2. But if buyers manage to push past R1 with decent volume behind it, we could see a turnaround—or at least some breathing room toward R2.
Medium-Term Scenarios and Price Projections
Looking at the technicals alongside what’s happening with the project itself, there are basically two ways this could play out:
Bullish Reversion Scenario: If buyers can hold the line around $0.06040 and break through resistance at $0.06360, SXP might climb back toward $0.06530, possibly even testing $0.06680. For this to happen, we’d need a few things: the MACD crossing back above its signal line, trading volume picking up beyond just exchange-specific events, and some real news about Core 5.0 launching or the Solar Card V3 rolling out.
Bearish Continuation Scenario: If support at $0.06040 gives way, SXP could easily slide down to $0.05890. Break below that, and we’re looking at $0.05720. The downside risk is real here—sentiment is weak, Bitcoin is sucking up all the attention, and altcoins in general aren’t recovering. Add in low liquidity and volume concentrated on just a few exchanges, and any selloff could get ugly fast.
Longer-Term Lens – Q1 2026 and Beyond
Taking the long view, SXP’s future looks cautiously optimistic—but only if they actually deliver on their promises. Core 5.0 should bring better scalability and tighter validator bridge integration, which would make the network more useful. The Solar Card V3 with IBAN support could connect the token to real-world finance and drive actual adoption. But here’s the catch: they have to execute. Any delays in testnet feedback, audits, or launch timelines could tank sentiment pretty quickly. As for reaching $0.080 or higher, that’s still pretty speculative unless we see a major shift in market conditions and overall risk appetite.
