Recent Ecosystem Developments and Market Backdrop
Nervos Network has been quietly making progress on multiple fronts over the last several weeks. The team recently upgraded the CKB explorer to include support for User-Defined Tokens, with a complete migration planned for late January 2026. This should bring better transparency for projects building tokens on the platform. Meanwhile, the Fiber Network—Nervos’ Layer-2 payment system—just released version 0.6.0 on testnet, which means the mainnet contract isn’t far behind. The team also launched a Web5 DID Toolbox that includes functionality for destroying DID cells, showing continued focus on privacy and identity features. All of this points to steady work on core infrastructure and tools that help set CKB apart in a crowded market.
As for price action, CKB is currently hovering around $0.00238 against USDT—pretty much in line with recent closes and still sitting below major resistance levels. The token is down about 0.18% in the last 24 hours. With roughly 47.9 billion coins in circulation, market cap stands just north of $110 million. Trading volume has been fairly quiet lately, suggesting not much momentum in the short term. If you look back at the past few weeks, price has been drifting lower from early December peaks, finding some support in the $0.00222–$0.00225 range.
Indicator-Based Technical Analysis: Trend, Momentum, and Key Levels
Mid-Term Trend (4-Hour Timeframe)
On the 4-hour chart, CKB is trading below its exponential moving average (around $0.0023938), though the simple moving average sits slightly lower at roughly $0.0023785. Either way you slice it, the trend looks bearish. The RSI is sitting at 46.9—just below the neutral 50 mark—so there’s no strong recovery signal yet. The MACD tells a similar story: it’s negative (MACD line under the signal line) with the histogram slowly expanding downward, confirming that bearish momentum is still in play.
Daily Support, Resistance, and Pivot Zones
Looking at daily pivot points, the central pivot comes in near $0.0023833. Resistance levels stack up at R1: $0.0024087, R2: $0.0024433, and R3: $0.0024687. On the support side, we’ve got S1 at $0.0023487, S2 at $0.0023233, and S3 down at $0.0022887. These levels line up pretty well with what we’ve been seeing lately—the token keeps bumping its head on resistance around $0.00240–$0.00242. A clean break above $0.00244 (R2) would suggest bulls are finally gaining traction, while a drop below $0.00232 (S2) could open the door to deeper losses.
Price Prediction Scenarios: What to Expect in Coming Weeks
Base Case – Sideways to Mild Recovery
If support holds in the $0.00222–$0.00235 zone, CKB will probably chop around in a range between $0.00230 and $0.00244. In this scenario, positive developments like the explorer migration and Fiber updates might generate some mild upward momentum, especially if the broader altcoin market catches a bid. We could see price drift toward $0.00240–$0.00245 if volume starts picking up. That said, resistance around $0.00245 will likely cap any rally unless something bigger changes on the fundamental side.
Bearish Risk Case – Break-Down to Stronger Support Zones
If CKB can’t hold the $0.00232–$0.00235 level, things could get uncomfortable. A break below that support would likely send price down toward $0.00220–$0.00225, and if that doesn’t hold, there’s a weaker support zone around $0.00217 that lines up with earlier 2025 lows. In this downside scenario, external worries—whether it’s security concerns from past bridge hacks, regulatory uncertainty, or just continued low volume—would pile on the pressure. Both MACD and RSI would stay in bearish territory, making it tough for bulls to step in until we find firmer ground.
Upside Catalysts and What to Watch
For CKB to mount any real recovery, it needs to clear some meaningful technical hurdles. First up are the daily moving averages—the 50-period SMA above $0.00255 and the 200-period way up around $0.00400 historically. Breaking through those would be a big psychological win. Next, watch the resistance levels at R2 (~$0.00244) and possibly R3 (~$0.00247-$0.00250). On the catalyst side, positive news could make the difference—think successful mainnet launch of Fiber Network, growing adoption of dApps and RGB++ assets, or encouraging progress on quantum-resistance features. On the flip side, if adoption stalls or there’s another security incident, that would reinforce the bearish outlook.
