Context and Regulatory Shifts
Tornado Cash has found itself right in the middle of heated legal debates and market speculation throughout 2025. Back in March, the U.S. Treasury actually took Tornado Cash off its sanctions list after a federal appeals court decided that smart contract code couldn’t be classified as “property” under existing sanctions law. This move helped ease some of the pressure on TORN, lifting what had been one of its biggest regulatory clouds. That said, legal troubles aren’t completely over—co-founder Roman Storm was found guilty in August of running an unlicensed money transmission business, though he was either acquitted or the jury couldn’t decide on the heavier charges related to money laundering and sanctions violations.
On the technical side, recent academic research has poked some holes in Tornado Cash’s privacy claims. A study looking at transactions across Ethereum, BNB Smart Chain, and Polygon found that users often shoot themselves in the foot by reusing addresses and making withdrawals at predictable times. The researchers traced more than $2.3 billion in withdrawals back to their original deposits using pattern-matching techniques. While this doesn’t break the protocol itself, it’s definitely a reputational hit and could catch the attention of regulators or compliance teams down the road.
Technical Price Data and Indicators
Right now, Tornado Cash (TORN) is trading around $13.31 USDT, up roughly 6.92% in the last 24 hours. Daily pivot points show resistance sitting at approximately $4.62 (R1), $5.08 (R2), and $5.52 (R3), with support levels at $3.72 (S1), $3.28 (S2), and $2.82 (S3). Keep in mind these pivots were calculated when the token was trading much lower, so current prices are well above those historical reference points.
Looking at various technical indicators, the picture is mostly bearish in the short to medium term. Several key moving averages—especially the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—are trending downward or sitting above the current price, acting as resistance. Tools like the Stochastic Oscillator, CCI, Williams %R, and ADX are all flashing “Sell” or “Strong Sell” signals. The MACD shows a slight uptick and might be crossing over, but momentum is pretty weak and hasn’t really confirmed yet. The 14-day Relative Strength Index usually hangs around neutral to slightly oversold territory.
Support and Resistance Zones
The big resistance level to watch is around $12.40, which has acted as a ceiling when bulls tried to push through before. If TORN can break cleanly above this with decent volume, we could see a move toward the $20 area. On the flip side, if buyers can’t hold this level, expect support to come into play around $10 to $11. If things get really ugly and the broader market turns south, TORN could slide down to $7.20 or lower.
Price Projections and Where Momentum Might Lead
In the short term—thinking weeks to maybe a couple months—TORN will probably test that $12.40 resistance again. If it breaks through on decent volume and the broader crypto market is looking good (think Bitcoin and Ethereum rallying), then $16 to $20 starts looking realistic. But with most technical signals pointing bearish right now and lingering regulatory questions, a rejection here could easily send the price back down to support around $10.50 to $11.50.
Looking further out, maybe six to eighteen months, some of the more optimistic forecasts put TORN in the low to mid $20s, especially if transaction volumes pick back up and demand for privacy tools grows. A few long-range models even project higher prices if legal outcomes go well and adoption increases. But if regulatory pressure heats up again or technical problems mount, bearish scenarios could drag TORN back down to $10 or even below.
Emerging Risks and Catalysts
The biggest risk hanging over TORN is the possibility of fresh regulatory crackdowns—or more developer prosecutions—especially if authorities decide to take a harder line on privacy tools. The recent academic research showing how users can be deanonymized doesn’t help matters. On the upside, potential catalysts include growing institutional interest in privacy, improvements in cryptographic technology, or shifts in U.S. crypto policy that finally clarify whether Tornado Cash’s operations are actually legal or not.
