Recent Developments & Market Sentiment
Axie Infinity’s native token (AXS) is hovering around $1.3567 right now, posting a solid 7.76% gain over the past 24 hours. There’s been some interesting movement behind the scenes that’s worth paying attention to. Sky Mavis recently rolled out bAXS—a bonded token for AXS stakers—which adds fresh utility through staking and governance features. What’s really caught people’s attention is the nearly 100% spike in active addresses lately. Most of the volume seems to be coming from wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 AXS, hinting that bigger players are quietly accumulating rather than retail traders chasing pumps. We’re also seeing broken descending channels and some sharp short-term rallies, which feel like genuine momentum shifts. That said, there’s a big question mark around the $2.50–$2.60 resistance zone—no one’s quite sure if the current rally has enough juice to push through. On the horizon, land-game updates like Terrariums and new in-game token functionality could act as catalysts if they deliver.
Technical Indicators & Key Levels
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the picture is cautiously bullish. The RSI is sitting around 59.32—not overbought yet, but comfortably above neutral, which suggests there’s still space for upward movement. The MACD just flipped bullish, with the MACD line crossing above its signal line and the histogram showing positive divergence at roughly 0.0182. Price is currently trading above both the 4-hour simple moving average (around $1.2898) and the exponential moving average (approximately $1.2988), confirming recent strength.
From a pivot point perspective, the key resistance levels to watch are R1 at about $1.3760, R2 near $1.4020, and R3 around $1.4160. On the flip side, support sits at S1 around $1.3360, S2 at $1.3220, and stronger support down at S3 near $1.2960. A decisive close above the R2–R3 range could open the door to testing those higher resistance zones people have been talking about—somewhere in the $2.00–$2.60 range.
Now, technical models looking out 30 days are actually calling for a gradual pullback, with prices expected to drift into the mid-to-upper $1.30s. If volume doesn’t hold up, we could see dips toward $1.29 or even $1.20 in weaker scenarios.
Upside Targets & Resistance Clusters
— Short-term upside: If AXS can push cleanly through $1.40–$1.42 with decent volume backing it, the next logical stop is somewhere around $1.50–$1.60. If momentum really picks up—especially if those game updates and bAXS adoption gain traction—we could see a run toward $2.00.
— Medium-term resistance: There’s a pretty formidable wall in the $2.50–$2.95 zone. Historically, this area has acted as a supply zone. Breaking through here would be a big deal and could set up targets around $3.40–$4.00, though that would likely need broader market support.
Risk Zones & Bearish Warning Signs
— If price slips below the $1.30–$1.33 support cluster, AXS could easily slide down to $1.20–$1.25.
— Losing volume and failing to reclaim $1.40 would probably mean we’re in for sideways consolidation or worse.
— Keep an eye on daily and weekly charts for overbought RSI divergence or negative MACD crossovers—those would be clear warning signs that the rally is running out of steam. And of course, if Bitcoin stumbles or broader macro conditions worsen, AXS would likely feel the pain too.
Forecast Scenarios & Probabilities
Bull Case (40% likelihood): AXS holds above $1.40 and gets a boost from ecosystem developments—think new game launches, growing staking participation, and real utility from bAXS. Price climbs toward $1.60–$2.00 over the next few weeks. If everything aligns and momentum stays strong, breaking $2.50 later on becomes a realistic possibility.
Base Case (40% likelihood): More likely, we see range-bound trading between $1.30 and $1.45. There might be occasional pops toward resistance and dips to support, but without a fresh catalyst, consolidation is the name of the game. Price could drift modestly higher if crypto markets stay neutral to slightly positive.
Bear Case (20% likelihood): If resistance at $1.42–$1.50 holds and volume drops off, AXS risks breaking below that $1.30 support cushion, which could lead to a decline toward $1.20 or lower. Broader market weakness or delays in game releases would make this scenario more likely.
Implications for Traders & Strategy
Given the current volatility, position sizing really matters here. Good entry zones are probably around support at $1.30–$1.33, with stops just below $1.25 to manage downside risk in base and bear scenarios. For upside plays, things get more interesting if we break above $1.50–$1.60 on solid volume—that could justify targets near $2.00. If you’re holding longer term, keep tabs on ecosystem metrics: how widely bAXS gets adopted, how new game launches perform, on-chain activity levels, and staking reward trends—these fundamentals will drive real value over time. Whatever your approach, risk management isn’t optional. Bearish divergences, macro headwinds, or roadmap delays could easily derail this rally.
