Recent Developments & Market Context
Terra Classic has grabbed attention lately thanks to increased burn activity and some major legal developments. Toward the end of 2025, LUNC saw its burn rate jump dramatically—we’re talking about 849 million tokens burned in just seven days. This happened right around the time people were watching Do Kwon’s US sentencing, which created quite a buzz in the market. The burn surge helped pull the asset up from its month-long slump and got traders excited again. Meanwhile, the community has been pushing forward with governance proposals, including new modules designed to create net deflation without minting fresh tokens. These moves show the ecosystem is still trying to rebuild trust and find its footing.
But here’s the reality check: despite all that positive burn momentum and governance activity, the price has taken a beating recently. Right now, LUNC is hovering around $0.00003280, down more than 11% in the last 24 hours alone. The technical picture isn’t pretty either—most indicators are flashing oversold signals, but we’re not seeing any real signs of a turnaround yet. It looks like those resistance levels and moving averages are keeping a tight lid on any upward moves.
Technical Indicator Breakdown: Where LUNC Stands
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting near 27, which screams oversold territory. The MACD has crossed below its signal line with a negative histogram—classic signs that downward pressure is still calling the shots. Both the Simple and Exponential Moving Averages are sitting above the current price like a ceiling. The 4-hour SMA is around $0.00003636 and the EMA near $0.00003590, and price has been getting rejected at these levels repeatedly.
The daily pivot points paint a similar bearish picture. The main pivot sits around $0.00003194, with support levels stacking up at S1: $0.00003080, S2: $0.00002887, and S3: $0.00002773. On the flip side, resistance levels are lined up at $0.00003387, $0.00003501, and $0.00003694. Based on where price is trading now, we’re basically stuck in a weak zone below the pivot, with multiple resistance barriers blocking the way up.
Price Forecast & Key Levels for Movement
Bullish Scenario: Under What Conditions Upside May Return
For LUNC to actually break free from this downtrend, it needs to push above and hold the $0.0000360–$0.0000375 range with conviction. Getting past that 4-hour SMA and tackling the pivot resistance around $0.000035–$0.000036 would signal that buyers are starting to take control. If the burn program really kicks into high gear, volume starts pouring in, or we get some positive regulatory news, we could see a move toward the $0.0000400 to $0.0000420 zone. And if momentum really builds from there, it’s not crazy to think about a push toward $0.000046–$0.000050.
Bearish Case: Support Under Threat and Potential Retracements
On the other hand, if sellers keep the upper hand and we lose support around $0.00003080–$0.00003100, things could get ugly fast. Breaking below that level would likely send price tumbling toward the next support around $0.00002880, with the third support level waiting down at roughly $0.00002770. If the MACD stays negative, volume remains weak, and the RSI can’t climb out of oversold territory, we could see even steeper drops—potentially revisiting levels 70% below recent highs.
In Summary: What Traders Should Watch
LUNC is sitting at a pretty critical juncture right now. Sure, the shorter timeframes show oversold conditions, but that doesn’t automatically mean a bounce is coming. The moving averages, daily pivots, and downward MACD momentum are all working against any upside moves unless something changes the game. Here are the levels you need to watch closely: if price drops below $0.00003100, support is cracking; if it climbs above $0.00003700, resistance might finally be breaking. Keep your eyes on the burn rate updates, governance decisions, and overall crypto market sentiment—these factors will ultimately decide whether LUNC can shake off this bearish pressure or keep sliding down.
